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Author
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Topic: [Discuss] SpaceX Starship missions to Mars
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Robert Pearlman
Editor Posts: 54234
From: Houston, TX
Registered: Nov 1999
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posted 03-15-2025 09:46 PM
   
Please use this topic to discuss Elon Musk's and SpaceX's plans to send the company's Starship on uncrewed and human missions to Mars. |
SpaceAholic
Member Posts: 5439
From: Sierra Vista, Arizona
Registered: Nov 1999
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posted 03-15-2025 09:46 PM
In a post on X (via a Fox News article), Elon Musk said that SpaceX's Starship will head to Mars at the end of 2026 carrying "Optimus," Tesla's humanoid robot. If those landings go well, then human landings may start as soon as 2029, although 2031 is more likely. |
Robert Pearlman
Editor Posts: 54234
From: Houston, TX
Registered: Nov 1999
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posted 03-15-2025 11:26 PM
As a point of reference in terms of Musk's ability to predict timelines, especially when it comes to Starship, here is what he said in September 2019: This is going to sound totally nuts, but I think we want to try to reach orbit in less than six months. Provided that the rate of design improvements and manufacturing improvements continue to be exponential, that is accurate to within a few months. It has been five and a half years and Starship has yet to reach Earth orbit... |
SpaceAholic
Member Posts: 5439
From: Sierra Vista, Arizona
Registered: Nov 1999
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posted 03-16-2025 06:26 AM
Musk is likely to benefit from a now more permissive regulatory environment which will allow him to increase launch cadence/maturation of Starship. |
Robert Pearlman
Editor Posts: 54234
From: Houston, TX
Registered: Nov 1999
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posted 03-16-2025 08:50 AM
Starship's delays have largely been technical and not related to regulatory requirements. Musk has a tendency of (at least publicly) dismissing the complexity of what he is trying to achieve, ignoring what NASA and others have learned over the last several decades. He has called life support, on-orbit fuel transfer and landing on the moon relatively simple challenges compared to building Starship. Time will tell if his assessments are true. |
issman1
Member Posts: 1158
From: UK
Registered: Apr 2005
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posted 03-16-2025 09:40 AM
Musk seems to have forgotten that SpaceX has existing NASA contracts to land American (and other nations) astronauts on the moon in 2027.While he offered a reasoned argument to deorbit ISS a lot sooner than 2031, sending Starship to Mars by late 2026 makes no sense when Artemis is already years behind schedule. Musk once had plans to land an unmmaned Dragon capsule on Mars -- which was ultimately abandoned. Starship has yet to reach orbit successfully, or even test crucial refuelling techniques, so this sounds desperate. |
Robert Pearlman
Editor Posts: 54234
From: Houston, TX
Registered: Nov 1999
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posted 03-16-2025 09:57 AM
SpaceX has proven it can deliver on bold ideas, just not on Musk's stated schedules. He's admitted to knowing that, too, but then continues to set targets that inevitably, are missed. |
SpaceAholic
Member Posts: 5439
From: Sierra Vista, Arizona
Registered: Nov 1999
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posted 03-16-2025 02:44 PM
quote:
Originally posted by Robert Pearlman:
Starship's delays have largely been technical and not related to regulatory requirements.
SpaceX is on record pushing back against FAA delays. While there may be other technical dependencies that are also impeding the timeline, an iterative design build, fly approach will only benefit from the government getting out of the way. |
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