posted 07-20-2015 03:06 PM
According to Elon Musk in a call with the media today:The most probable, but not yet definitive, cause of the CRS-7 launch failure was a defective third-party-sourced steel strut that snapped in flight, damaging a helium bottle. That in turn released a small amount of helium into the upper stage oxygen tank, which resulted in the overpressurization that led to the failure.
Going forward, all struts will be individually inspected by SpaceX regardless of their rating (the strut in question is believed to have failed at g-forces five times less than it was rated to support).
The Dragon would have survived had it been able to deploy its parachutes. Going forward, an update to the Dragon's software will support deploying the chutes.
The soonest that Falcon 9 will fly again is September, though it is not yet clear what customer's payload will be on that flight. The loss has pushed the planned first flight of Falcon Heavy to spring 2016 (maybe April), but will not have an affect on Crew Dragon.
Update: SpaceX has now issued its own summary statement.