Topic: Ukraine crisis (2022) and space cooperation
Robert Pearlman Editor
Posts: 49723 From: Houston, TX Registered: Nov 1999
posted 03-01-2022 04:09 PM
quote:Originally posted by Blackarrow: ...that is tantamount to approving of, or at least tolerating, Russia's actions.
The Apollo-Soyuz Test Project did not signal that the United States was turning a blind eye to the Soviet Union's ongoing antisemitism and general poor human rights at the time. On the other hand, some historians have credited the mission with planting the early seeds — that together with other, later factors — led to the fall of the Soviet Union 16 years later.
It seems doubtful that ending Russia's participation in the International Space Station would serve as a deterrent to Putin, but keeping the collaboration going emphasizes to Russia and the rest of the world that there is a way to coexist peacefully.
SpaceAholic Member
Posts: 5192 From: Sierra Vista, Arizona Registered: Nov 1999
posted 03-02-2022 07:21 AM
Would we have had a similar ISS arrangement with the Nazi's? That is effectively the same analogy here - Russia is actively engaged in genocide/commission of war crimes as it prosecutes its campaign targeting civilians and invading an adjacent country.
Robert Pearlman Editor
Posts: 49723 From: Houston, TX Registered: Nov 1999
posted 03-02-2022 07:25 AM
In essence we did, in the form of Project Paperclip. We looked past war crimes to bolster our missile and space programs with the guidance of Wernher von Braun and his team. No such exceptions were made in any other profession.
SpaceAholic Member
Posts: 5192 From: Sierra Vista, Arizona Registered: Nov 1999
posted 03-02-2022 07:27 AM
Paperclip was not a collaborative effort with the Nazi regime (Hitler).
dom Member
Posts: 1029 From: Registered: Aug 2001
posted 03-02-2022 08:16 AM
Have any cosmonauts of Ukrainian decent commented on this issue yet?
Or any Russian cosmonauts?
328KF Member
Posts: 1374 From: Registered: Apr 2008
posted 03-02-2022 08:51 AM
Lueders and other NASA managers shouldn’t be out there making statements like, “Currently, there is no plan — it would be very difficult for us to be operating on our own.” That was an amateur mistake.
In the current environment, that only serves to give Russia leverage over not just the ISS program, but the larger geopolitical chess game that is going on right now.
Bill Nelson, after days of no comments, on Tuesday did commit to the continued safety of the astronauts and cosmonauts currently aboard the ISS - a very broad statement that doesn’t show any cards.
What I’d like to hear, and have it actually be the case, is NASA saying “We are currently looking at all potential options in coordination with our international and commercial partners to continue ISS operations should Russia decide to leave the program.”
Don’t give Putin one inch of ground on anything. The next time one of the Russians threaten to do harm to the incredible ISS program should be met with a shrug of the shoulders from the world community.
Blackarrow Member
Posts: 3542 From: Belfast, United Kingdom Registered: Feb 2002
posted 03-02-2022 09:49 AM
quote:Originally posted by Robert Pearlman: The Apollo-Soyuz Test Project did not signal that the United States was turning a blind eye...
Robert, the Agreement Concerning Co-operation in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space for Peaceful Purposes, signed in Moscow in May, 1972, which led to the ASTP mission of July, 1975, was half-a-century ago, in a different world. Detente was in the air. President Nixon visited China and Russia. The Cold War was visibly thawing. Then in 1979, the USSR invaded Afghanistan and the Cold War got freezing cold again, reaching one of its chilliest and most dangerous phases in the early 1980s. It was not until the rise of Mikhail Gorbachev that another joint space mission could place, in June 1995. I am not going to attempt a comparison between Afghanistan and Ukraine, but suffice it to say that today it seems more like 1979 than either 1975 or 1995.
On your second point, I must respectfully disagree. Continuing the "collaboration" [an interesting word] with Russia on the ISS would indeed set a good example to a reasonable man, but by his actions Vladimir Putin is clearly not a reasonable man, and will undoubtedly read NASA's continued collaboration as weakness and acceptance of what he is doing in Ukraine.
Robert Pearlman Editor
Posts: 49723 From: Houston, TX Registered: Nov 1999
posted 03-02-2022 10:58 AM
We will just have to agree to disagree. While I can see your point, I think space exploration can and should rise above Earth-based conflicts.
What I think we can all agree about is this is just petty. From Roscosmos General Director Dmitry Rogozin (via Twitter):
The launchers at Baikonur decided that without the flags of some countries, our rocket would look more beautiful.
As also pointed out on Twitter, the workers are using a decal made by 3M, a U.S. company, to cover the American flag and others.
dom Member
Posts: 1029 From: Registered: Aug 2001
posted 03-02-2022 02:45 PM
Yes, that guy’s pathetic. Don’t worry, he won’t be in his job for much longer...
Mike Dixon Member
Posts: 1625 From: Kew, Victoria, Australia Registered: May 2003
posted 03-02-2022 04:21 PM
141 countries would have to agree.
dom Member
Posts: 1029 From: Registered: Aug 2001
posted 03-02-2022 06:01 PM
I wouldn’t want to be Rogozin when his boss “retires” from the Kremlin...
SkyMan1958 Member
Posts: 1259 From: CA. Registered: Jan 2011
posted 03-02-2022 07:09 PM
According to Space.com, March 2, Russia is refusing to launch OneWeb satellites unless its demands are met. The Soyuz rocket carrying 36 OneWeb satellites currently at Baikonur will be rolled back to storage on Friday, March 4, if these demands are not met.
The two major demands are that OneWeb guarantee the satellites will not be used for military purposes, and that the UK Government remove it's investment in the company. These demands are not likely to be met.
In my opinion, this is probably the end of Russian launches of Western commercial (and probably scientific) payloads for a very long time.
Robert Pearlman Editor
Posts: 49723 From: Houston, TX Registered: Nov 1999
posted 03-03-2022 09:42 AM
OneWeb statement (via Twitter):
The Board of OneWeb has voted to suspend all launches from Baikonur.
In other, related news, Roscosmos General Director Dmitry Rogozin today said:
Roscosmos will not service the remaining 24 RD-180 engines in the US, and the RD-181 will stop deliveries.
The State Corporation will not cooperate with Germany on joint experiments on the Russian segment of the ISS. Roscosmos will conduct them independently.
Russian space program will be adjusted against the backdrop of sanctions, the priority will be the creation of satellites in the interests of defense.
fredtrav Member
Posts: 1799 From: Birmingham AL Registered: Aug 2010
posted 03-03-2022 10:22 AM
OneWeb should have agreed to the terms and then reneged on them once the launch was complete. UK could have put its interest in a trust, then taken it back. Russia violated its contract, so OneWeb would be in its rights to violate any agreements they signed.
dom Member
Posts: 1029 From: Registered: Aug 2001
posted 03-03-2022 12:16 PM
As each day brings further evidence that Russia is now run by a deranged leader who seems set on going to war with the rest of the world — surely it's time to consider the unthinkable.
We might be getting to the stage where we have to try freeze Russia out of the day to day operation of the ISS or have to call time on the project.
Does anyone actually trust Russia to do the right thing anymore?
SkyMan1958 Member
Posts: 1259 From: CA. Registered: Jan 2011
posted 03-03-2022 01:54 PM
While I am obviously not a fan of the Russian invasion, I think that attempting to boot them off the ISS is doomed.
It's interesting to me that the current "international" astronaut aboard the ISS is a German, Matthias Maurer.
Given Germany's wishy washy policy to Russia before the invasion, I suspect that Maurer will be talking to the Russian cosmonauts (both the current Expedition members and the upcoming MS-21 crew) about how important the decision by the German government to increase defense spending and send military aid to Ukraine are. After all, for the former, Germany's GDP is roughly $4 trillion, while Russia's is roughly $1.6 trillion, while for the latter, Germany may finally be moving out of it's self imposed (since WWII) hard power inaction.
Robert Pearlman Editor
Posts: 49723 From: Houston, TX Registered: Nov 1999
posted 03-03-2022 02:01 PM
quote:Originally posted by dom: Does anyone actually trust Russia to do the right thing anymore?
Russia isn't a singular entity.
I doubt Anton Shkaplerov and Pyotr Dubrov are plotting against their Expedition 66 crewmates. Prior to the invasion, the station's crew said they were monitoring the situation but had kept it out of their conversations.
So, yes, I expect the crew to do the right thing.
Likewise, I see no reason to believe that those working in Mission Control Moscow and at Star City will shrug the responsibilities they have to the space station. Putin may run the country, but he has never really interacted with Russia's space program outside of ceremonial exchanges.
As for Rogozin, it is clear that most of his tweets are for Putin's benefit, but as of yet he hasn't backed up any of his boasts with significant action. He hasn't even canceled OneWeb's launch — even after OneWeb announced it was pulling out — giving them until tomorrow morning to reconsider.
SkyMan1958 Member
Posts: 1259 From: CA. Registered: Jan 2011
posted 03-03-2022 04:02 PM
It looks to me like the Strategic Rocket Forces of the Russian Federation and the Russian Aerospace Forces both launch military satellites. As far as I can see, Roscosmos does not launch strictly military payloads, although obviously GPS and communication satellites are dual purpose types of platforms.
Given the bad press, even in Russia, about Roscosmos, is this pretty much the end for Roscosmos in its current format?
dom Member
Posts: 1029 From: Registered: Aug 2001
posted 03-03-2022 04:36 PM
I’m not casting aspersions on the character of most of the hardworking Russian space professionals and cosmonauts - it’s their bosses (who seem to be milking the space budget dry like most of Putin’s gang) I worry about. They might use the ISS as a bargaining chip if things get nasty in the next few months.
Best have a “Plan B” to keep the ISS running without Russia cooperation if it suddenly starts holding the station to ransom.
Robert Pearlman Editor
Posts: 49723 From: Houston, TX Registered: Nov 1999
posted 03-04-2022 10:27 AM
From Russian Space Web editor Anatoly Zak (via Twitter):
This is apparently a screenshot from Russian propaganda footage showing remnants of Ukraine's An-225 Mriya (I am sure they blamed it on Ukraine):
p51 Member
Posts: 1759 From: Olympia, WA Registered: Sep 2011
posted 03-04-2022 05:11 PM
More photos here from Austrian Wings.
oly Member
Posts: 1432 From: Perth, Western Australia Registered: Apr 2015
posted 03-05-2022 10:15 AM
Since the end of the Cold War, we have been sold the idea that the ISS transcends the political squabbles on earth and acts as a way for "all mankind" to get along and undertake an engineering and scientific program designed to push spaceflight, science, engineering, and medicine further, and for the most part, it has.
However, for the past few years, the Russians have played some strange cards including making accusations of an astronaut committing sabotage, and have become more aggressive in many areas where their behavior should be that of a team member participating in one of the greatest engineering efforts since Apollo.
Now that many of their customers and their parent nations have been calling out their actions against Ukraine as unacceptable, they respond with more aggression and intimating harm against anyone who criticizes them. Not the kind of actions that promotes a cohesive team environment at any level.
star61 Member
Posts: 311 From: Bristol UK Registered: Jan 2005
posted 03-05-2022 11:49 AM
I have to agree with the previous statement. The Russian culture, certainly under the present dictator, is one of never admit to doing wrong or being in error... ever, about anything. The attitude of criticise us and we will threaten and be belligerent in return, is one of weakness and knowledge that one is fundamentally flawed. This is an approach to the world that they have succeeded in exporting to certain western politicians.
I know a number of Russians and have been there, and know that like most people they just want the basics of life that we all want. But they have shown a particularly unfortunate tendency to the worst sort of leaders.
Robert Pearlman Editor
Posts: 49723 From: Houston, TX Registered: Nov 1999
posted 03-05-2022 12:24 PM
Please let us keep this thread focused on space policy and space history as it is and has been affected by the Ukraine invasion. General discussion about Russian politics or other aspects of the attack are best left to other websites or forums.
OLDIE Member
Posts: 338 From: Portsmouth, England Registered: Sep 2004
posted 03-06-2022 04:21 AM
Well said Robert. As you say, this is not the right place for these discussions, however strongly one feels about the situation.
SkyMan1958 Member
Posts: 1259 From: CA. Registered: Jan 2011
posted 03-06-2022 05:04 PM
My understanding is that Northrup Grumman has the Antares parts in place for the next two launches of Cygnus. Given the war and Russian statements about rocket engines etc., has anyone heard anything about Northrup Grumman's (NG) preferred means to deliver Cygnus spacecraft after the next two launches?
Clearly Atlas V is off the table now. One would hope that in maybe 2 to 3 years time Vulcan could launch Cygnus, depending on when Blue Origin finally gets its act in gear with BE-4 engines. While SpaceX could launch Cygnus, I would assume NASA doesn't want all its eggs in one basket.
Is there any chatter that NG might buy Aerojet engines, or some other US/Western produced engines, to modify it's Antares rocket?
Robert Pearlman Editor
Posts: 49723 From: Houston, TX Registered: Nov 1999
posted 03-06-2022 07:06 PM
It is really too early to know anything about Northrop Grumman's plans. While I am sure there are early discussions going on within the company, we're only a couple of weeks into the conflict and a lot depends on what happens in Ukraine (and Russia) over the next few months or so.
I also wouldn't rule out Atlas V. While all the remaining flights are presently spoken for, manifests can be changed, especially if there is a national need to do so.
oly Member
Posts: 1432 From: Perth, Western Australia Registered: Apr 2015
posted 03-06-2022 07:17 PM
What involvement, if any, does Russia have with each launch of an RD-180 engine on US rockets?
Do they provide support services, or are the engines used on US rockets stand alone?
Robert Pearlman Editor
Posts: 49723 From: Houston, TX Registered: Nov 1999
posted 03-06-2022 08:10 PM
United Launch Alliance CEO Tory Bruno told Aviation Week:
We have all the engines... to allow us to fly out the roughly two dozen Atlas missions on the ULA manifest. When tensions were heating up with Russia about a year ago, we deliberately accelerated those deliveries so we would have them in the event things got difficult later.
We maintain a type of retainer contract for technical services should we experience something we don't expect on the launchpad or in the factory so we would be able to call up the Russian engineers and talk with them about it.
And, I still have some extra spare parts I'd like to have. I don't have all of those delivered yet. But, both [tech service and spare parts] are just risk mitigations and we know how to get by without either of those and we've positioned ourselves to do that.
SkyMan1958 Member
Posts: 1259 From: CA. Registered: Jan 2011
posted 03-08-2022 11:45 AM
Per Vice, retired astronauts Scott Kelly and Garrett Reisman threw some verbal rocks at Dmitri Rogozin, with Kelly saying, "Without those flags (on the Soyuz rocket) and the foreign exchange they bring in, your space program won't be worth a damn. Maybe you can find a job at McDonald's if McDonald's still exists in Russia."
While the astronauts are retired, and have the same free speech right as every other American, I was surprised to see this. It's currently looking like the ISS partnership won't last past 2024.
ejectr Member
Posts: 1944 From: Killingly, CT Registered: Mar 2002
posted 03-10-2022 09:40 AM
2024? I just watched an ABC News segment that made it sound more ominous than that. They mentioned the current US astronaut being able to hitch a ride back to Earth with SpaceX if needed.
Robert Pearlman Editor
Posts: 49723 From: Houston, TX Registered: Nov 1999
posted 03-10-2022 10:08 AM
There are four NASA astronauts aboard the space station right now, as well as an ESA crew member who NASA is responsible for bringing home on Dragon as well.
While plans can change, as of now, NASA astronaut Mark Vande Hei is scheduled to return to Earth on a Russian Soyuz with two Russian crewmates on March 28.
SkyMan1958 Member
Posts: 1259 From: CA. Registered: Jan 2011
posted 03-10-2022 04:48 PM
Does anyone know if there are NASA/ESA/JAXA astronauts currently in Russia or Russian cosmonauts currently in the USA/EU/Japan?
One would assume there are assorted support staff from NASA/ESA/JAXA In Russia, and Roscosmos support staff in USA/EU/Japan. Have either side discussed draw down of their staffs?
ejectr Member
Posts: 1944 From: Killingly, CT Registered: Mar 2002
posted 03-10-2022 05:10 PM
quote:Originally posted by Robert Pearlman: While plans can change...
I know. They just said he would have to stay a bit longer, but could hitch a ride on a SpaceX craft if he had to. They also had a segment from a very annoyed astronaut Kelly.
Same thing again regarding a ride home with SpaceX on ABC Nightly News just now.
Robert Pearlman Editor
Posts: 49723 From: Houston, TX Registered: Nov 1999
posted 03-10-2022 06:01 PM
Yes, if Roscosmos were to refuse to bring Vande Hei home, then NASA has a backup in the form of the Dragon, but the logistics and schedule for such is not something that NASA or SpaceX has shared (on or off the record).
quote:Originally posted by SkyMan1958: Have either side discussed draw down of their staffs?
NASA has said nothing about pulling its space station support staff or astronauts in training out of Russia, nor has Russia said anything about removing its representatives from the U.S. or other partner training and operational sites.
As of Feb. 23, two NASA astronauts were wrapping up their training in Russia, with five more scheduled to go. At the same time, there were three Russian cosmonauts here in Houston.
oly Member
Posts: 1432 From: Perth, Western Australia Registered: Apr 2015
posted 03-11-2022 08:44 PM
I do not suspect that SpaceX would have many problems assisting NASA with any additional ISS international and American crew should the relationship with Russia and the ISS partnership fail completely.
SpaceX has demonstrated the four person crew capability of the Dragon vehicle and has demonstrated their capability to turn the boosters and the capsule around between missions with efficiency.
Should relationships fail, NASA could request that SpaceX have a Crew Dragon and launch vehicle on standby, and, perhaps even dedicate a Crew Dragon as a docked lifeboat for the ISS. The capability exists.
While there is a significant international move to cut ties with anything Russian at this time, I believe that NASA, the US government, and all of the international partners maintain the status quo with regards to the ISS, as an indication that their space policy transcends the mayhem happening below. If Russia wants out of the agreement, allow them to cut bait and run. If the remaining team can pick up the slack and continue without faltering, It shows a more powerful message.
The ISS has achieved its goals and survived a maze of political direction changes stemming from U.S. administration changes and the change of faith and loss of the shuttle program over the years. As far back as Skylab, the U.S. has tried to have a space station and a launch vehicle capable of regular crew and cargo transfer. The shuttle program was delayed so long that it failed to fly before Skylab came down, and the shuttle experienced a loss in faith that ended its service once the ISS was complete. The system never had a chance to function as designed.
Now that the commercial crew system is working and regular crew and cargo missions can be operated from the U.S. it would be sad to see the space station end and the commercial carriers left with nowhere to fly to. It may be expensive to operate, but replacing the ISS with something of similar capability would be far more expensive.
Long-duration spaceflight is still in its infancy, operators and engineers are still discovering how to maintain a space station over an extended period. Just as aircraft manufacturers evolved their designs to be capable of longer service lives by using the earlier aircraft types and discovering what breaks and what does not, the ISS is an excellent testbed for learning how to live in space for longer.
The commercial crew vehicles will benefit and develop faster if they have a reliable space station to visit, and as so much money has been spent to develop international docking systems, robotic arms, navigation and proximity detection systems, which all need repeated use to discover what wears out, what breaks down, and how to maintain and repair them in space over a long time. The international partners should treat the ISS partnership like something that if lost, will never happen again.
It has always been a possibility that political ties may change and the partnership may shift. It is how the collaboration deals with such and moves forward that counts. The ISS may be somewhat long in the tooth, but there is not another one ready to replace it.
Plus, if it all goes wrong, where will that leave Boeing and their Starliner?
dom Member
Posts: 1029 From: Registered: Aug 2001
posted 03-12-2022 04:00 AM
Rogozin is now pathetically posting on social media (not Twitter) about the ISS falling down on the heads of western “dogs of war” because of sanctions. Perhaps the best course of action really is to just ignore it all and run the show like the only adults in the room until sanity returns to the Russian establishment...
Robert Pearlman Editor
Posts: 49723 From: Houston, TX Registered: Nov 1999
posted 03-12-2022 09:38 AM
No one in the space industry is taking what Rogozin tweets (or posts to any social media) as serious. This conflict has drawn a lot of new watchers to his accounts, but those who have been following him for years knows that nothing he says online matters. He is, for lack of a more polite word, a troll.
As proof, take a look at what Roscosmos actually did, re-boosted the station's orbit as scheduled, as reported by TASS:
The International Space Station's (ISS) flight orbit has been adjusted ahead of the Soyuz MS-21 launch and the Soyuz-19 landing, Russia's state space corporation Roscosmos said on Friday.
"An International Space Station's orbit adjustment has been carried out to create ballistic conditions ahead of the landing of the Soyuz MS-19 reentry vehicle and the launch of the Soyuz MS-21 manned spaceship," it said.
The adjustment maneuver was carried out with the help of the engines of the Progress MS-18 cargo spaceship that were switched on at 22:35 Moscow time to be working for 320.01 seconds.
"According to preliminary calculations, the stations' altitude has been raised by 850 meters to reach 418.44 kilometers above Earth," Roscosmos said.
Robert Pearlman Editor
Posts: 49723 From: Houston, TX Registered: Nov 1999
posted 03-14-2022 08:59 AM
TASS state news agency release
Roscosmos to bring US astronaut back to Earth March 30 as scheduled
Earlier, some US media expressed doubts if Russia would agree to take US astronaut Mark Vande Hei back to Earth amid the sanctions imposed on Russia over the situation in Ukraine
Russia's space corporation Roscosmos has never given its partners the slightest chance to doubt its reliability. The US astronaut due to return to Earth soon will do so as scheduled on board Russia's space capsule vehicle on March 30, the space corporation said on Monday.
Earlier, some US media expressed doubts if Russia would agree to take US astronaut Mark Vande Hei back to Earth amid the sanctions imposed on Russia over the situation in Ukraine.
"US astronaut Mark Vande Hei will travel back home in the Soyuz MS-19 spacecraft together with Russia's Anton Shkaplerov and Pyotr Dubrov on March 30. Roscosmos has never let anybody doubt its reliability as a partner," the Roscosmos' press-service has said.
The corporation stressed that the ISS crew's safety has always been its top priority.
Earlier, Roscosmos CEO Dmitry Rogozin uploaded to his Telegram channel an extract from a Fox News broadcast claiming that Russia might leave the US astronaut in space.
The Soyuz MS-19 space capsule with Anton Shkaplerov, Pyotr Dubrov and Mark Vande Hei is expected to land on March 30. Dubrov and Vande Hei arrived on the ISS in the Soyuz MS-18 spacecraft together with Oleg Novitsky. This descent module brought back to Earth the two feature film crew members - actress Yulia Peresild and film director Klim Shipenko, who had arrived on the ISS together with Anton Shkaplerov in the Soyuz MS-19 on October 5.
fredtrav Member
Posts: 1799 From: Birmingham AL Registered: Aug 2010
posted 03-14-2022 10:13 AM
Roscosmos has never let anybody doubt its reliability as a partner," the Roscosmos' press-service has said.
Tell that to OneWeb.
And as one gentleman pointed out to me as far as Roscosmos upholding their contracts, besides OneWeb, tell that to the customers who were using Soyuz to launch from Guyana, where the Russia recently pulled their workers from.
Or for that matter ULA here in the states that, while having the engines needed, there was still spare parts to be delivered that have been cancelled.
posted 03-01-2022 04:09 PM
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