posted 10-10-2007 12:06 AM            

This is the answer I gave, "Good question, there isn't a simple answer.

Apollo 10 trained for a specific mission that included everything but a lunar landing so it was known that they would not conduct the first landing. The lunar module they used was not capable of landing on the moon for various reasons.

If Apollo 10 had not been a success then Apollo 11 may have been used to make sure that a landing was possible without actually landing itself or NASA may have looked at the problems Apollo 10 had encountered and worked out ways on the ground to solve them and gone ahead with a landing on 11.

Apollo 11 trained for a lunar landing mission so it can be assumed that when the mission profile was being developed they knew it was going to be the first attempt at a landing.

If Apollo 11 had failed then Apollo 12 would have attempted the first landing and the same would go if that failed, Apollo 13 would make the first attempt. The end of 1969 was seen as a challenge but it was not a case of "If we don't land by the end of 1969 we shall abandon the entire program and not go to the moon", Apollo would have continued until a landing had been made, given that there were no major disasters.

The crew for Apollo 11 was officially announced on the 9th of January 1969 but the man selecting the crews probably had a good idea of who he wanted on that crew before that date. The outlines for the specific missions were drawn up long before 1969 with the fifth mission probably being the one to attempt the first landing.

The best answer I can give for a definitive date for Apollo 11 as the first lunar landing attempt is May 24th 1969, this was the date Apollo 10 splashed down safely after completing its mission. Before that date there was always a chance that Apollo 11 might not have been selected as the first landing, even though its crew had trained for one and the hardware was capable of one. One thing to add, when the crew for Apollo 11 was announced on January 9th 1969, the newspapers ran the headlines that the crew for the first lunar landing had been chosen. So it was pretty much known at the beginning of 1969 that, barring a disaster and if Apollo 9 and Apollo 10 were a complete success, Apollo 11 would attempt the first landing with Armstrong and Aldrin as the men making that attempt."

posted 10-10-2007 12:41 AM            

When was this list drawn up?

This was the follow up question from the researcher, "I figured that NASA has SOME plan in place, though clearly it evolved. So I wondered: Is it reasonable in, say, 1966 that NASA (and/or the public) would have known that the basic timeline was approximately some time in 1969? Or was it perhaps more optimistic early on?"

posted 10-11-2007 03:03 PM               

"[...] The best answer I can give for a definitive date for Apollo 11 as the first lunar landing attempt is May 24th 1969, this was the date Apollo 10 splashed down safely after completing its mission....[ ]"

Truish, but if you follow that reasoning, Apollo 11 was only definitively the landing on the afternoon (US EST) of July 20, 1969....

As you note, 11 was judged to be the first likely lunar attempt by the time Armstrong, Aldrin and Collins were named the crew in early January. They were the first astronauts to train specifically for a landing mission.

No such determination was possible prior to the successes of Apollo 7 and 8. Indeed, for most of 1968 Slayton assumed that the first likely landing would be Apollo 12 (and told the novelist Allen Drury, in Houston researching THRONE OF SATURN, that if he needed a name for the first astronaut to walk on the Moon, he should use Pete Conrad.)

So the answer to the stated question is... December 1968/January 1969.

Owen Maynard's A-B-C plan was formalized, as far as I know, after the 1967 fire. Call it spring 1967. It never specified a number of missions, only the types. It was assumed that there might be two C or D missions, for example.

Prior the fire, a landing wasn't considered likely until at least the eighth mission -- two Block I missions followed by at least six Block II flights.

Michael Cassutt